World Population Day

  Looking at fertility and mortality trends is essential to understanding global demographic change . In the absence of migration (when the whole world is considered, net migration is zero), population growth refers to the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths . The births and deaths that took place over the past century determine the Current population size and composition . Population growth happens when there are more births than deaths. Over the past decades, there have been profound changes in birth rates, death rates, and population size globally. The number of births has been higher than the number of deaths. For example, in 1965, the crude birth rate (number of births per 1,000 population) was around 35, while the crude death rate (number of deaths per 1,000 population) was about 13. The difference was more than 20 per 1,000 population, and the rate of natural increase was 2 per 100 population (2%). The difference between crude birth rate and cr...

The number of births is determined by two key factors: the number of women in their reproductive age and the average number of children those women have (total fertility rate, TFR). Globally, total fertility rates started to decline in the 1960s. Factors contributing to this decline include: Increased access to education , particularly for women. Economic factors, such as the Cost of raising children . Shifts in societal norms and values regarding family size .

Fertility trends vary significantly across different regions of the world. Currently, the Sub-Saharan Africa region has the highest total fertility rates in the world. Despite some decline in recent years, the average number of children a woman was 4.3 children in 2023, higher than other regions. Total fertility rates in Europe and Central Asia, and in North America , have been among the lowest globally since 1960, and it was 1.6 children on average, in 2023. In other regions, total fertility rates were high in the 1960s but have sharply declined since. Fertility decline in East Asia and Pacific was drastic, and the fertility rate was lowest (1.3 children on average) in 2023.

Currently , economies across the world are in different phases of Demographic transition , and total fertility rates vary significantly. Fertility decline is particularly pronounced in some places, where total fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman (the replacement level fertility is the average number of children per woman needed to maintain a stable population size ). In 2023, in seven economies, on average, a woman gave birth to less than one child. On the other hand, there were five economies where, on average, a woman gave birth to more than six children. These economies with fertility rates higher than six were all in the Sub-Saharan Africa region.